2012 Week 13 Results

Picks were 1-5 last week. The bankroll plunged to $9,668.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG CORRECT
Bills -5.5 Jaguars Jaguars $1,200 -110 N
Broncos -7 Buccaneers Broncos $800 -110 Y
Packers -8 Vikings Vikings $800 -110 N
Titans 7.5 Texans Titans $1,200 -110 N
Dolphins 8.5 Patriots Patriots $800 -110 N
Bears -3.5 Seahawks Bears $1,200 -110 N

And with that, I’m going to hang it up for this season. One of the reasons I’m posting picks is so I can take an honest look at how the model is doing, and it is clearly not doing well. I’m planning to try a few totally different approaches over the offseason and hopefully return in 2013 with a better model.

2012 Week 13 Update

Adding Bears -3.5

2012 Week 13 Picks

UPDATE: adding Bears -3.5

5 picks so far this week: Jaguars +5.5, Broncos -7, Vikings +8, Titans +7.5, and Patriots -8.5.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG
Bills -5.5 Jaguars Jaguars $1,200 -110
Broncos -7 Buccaneers Broncos $800 -110
Packers -8 Vikings Vikings $800 -110
Titans 7.5 Texans Titans $1,200 -110
Dolphins 8.5 Patriots Patriots $800 -110
Bears -3.5 Seahawks Bears $1,200 -110

That’s a lot of picks.

2012 Results Week 12

Picks were 0-1 last week. Bankroll is down to $14,156.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG CORRECT
Dolphins 3.5 Seahawks Seahawks $1,800 -110 N

2012 Week 12 Picks

Just one pick so far: Seahawks +3.5.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG
Dolphins 3.5 Seahawks Seahawks $1,800 -110

There are still a few lines that are missing, pending on injuries, so I may have more by Sunday. If so, I will post again.

2012 Week 11 Results

Last week’s pick was 1-0, bringing the bankroll up to $15,956.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG CORRECT
Cowboys -7.5 Browns Browns $1,200 -110 Y

2012 Week 11 Picks

One pick so far: Browns +7.5.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG
Cowboys -7.5 Browns Browns $1,200 -110

There may be more picks before Sunday, depending on injuries. If so I will make another post.

2012 Week 10 Results

Picks were 1-3 last week, and the bankroll was knocked down to $14,866.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG CORRECT  
Vikings 2 Lions Lions 2050 -115 N 41
Panthers 4 Broncos Broncos 1450 -125 Y 29
Ravens -9 Raiders Raiders 2050 -110 N 41
Steelers -12.5 Chiefs Steelers 1450 -110 N 29

2012 Week 10 Picks

4 picks this week: Broncos -4, Raiders +9, Steelers -12.5, Lions -2. That’s three favorites, and three road teams… and two road favorites.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG
Vikings 2 Lions Lions $2,050 -115
Panthers 4 Broncos Broncos $1,450 -125
Ravens -9 Raiders Raiders $2,050 -110
Steelers -12.5 Chiefs Steelers $1,450 -110

Continuing two trends from last week: taking the Broncos, and going against the Chiefs. Also, reversing course on the Raiders who are now undervalued vs the Ravens. There’s potentially one more pick if a line moves, but probably a long shot. I will make another post if it happens.

2012 Week 9 Results

Picks were 3-1 last week, putting the bankroll in the black at $20,505, and an overall record of 6-5.

HOME LINE AWAY PICK ALLOCATION VIG CORRECT
Chargers -7.5 Chiefs Chargers $1,350 -110 Y
Bengals 4 Broncos Broncos $1,350 -110 Y
Raiders -1 Buccaneers Buccaneers $1,350 -110 Y
Giants -3 Steelers Giants $1,350 -120 N

Week 10 picks up soon.

Return top

2012 Record Against the Spread

ATSPCT (EXCL PUSHES)
9-1439.1%
Starting BalanceCurrent Balance
$20,000$9,668

2011 RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD
ATSPCT (EXCL PUSHES)
21-21-250%
Starting BalanceCurrent Balance
$21,000$18,015

2010 RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD
ATSPCT (EXCL PUSHES)
21-13-161.8%

Need proof? Check here.